Grilling season kicks off with high but stable meat prices

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A report by Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics experts indicated a mixed bag of slight price increases and decreases for beef, pork and poultry throughout grilling season.

Consumer costs for primary beef and pork offerings like ground beef, chuck roasts, sirloin steaks and pork chops are expected to increase around 1% between May and October, while chicken cuts like boneless breasts are expected to decrease by more than 2% during the same time.

The Summer 2024 Meat Prices report was authored by Simon Somogyi, Ph.D., director of the Weston Agrifood Sales Program and Dr. Kerry Litzenberg Sales and Economics Endowed Chair in the department. Report co-authors include David Anderson, Ph.D., professor and Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service specialist – livestock and food product marketing; Yong Liu, Ph.D., assistant professor; and Weifang Liang, a doctoral student – all in the department.

Somogyi said prices continue to remain near historic highs, but market trends are showing lower retail costs for consumers compared to last year. Consumers should expect a price spike as the Memorial Day holiday weekend kicks off grilling season that typically peaks with Fourth of July celebrations.

“Prices may spike and fluctuate that first month of grilling season due to higher demand from people eating at restaurants and cooking out at home,” he said. “But prices should stabilize after that.”

Price expectations are averaged across the U.S., and Somogyi said retail prices will be heavily influenced by location and price discounting like grocery specials.

The price forecasts reflect market dynamics across beef, pork and poultry products typically purchased for summer cookouts, Somogyi said.

He attributed the anticipated price increases for ground beef and chuck roast to the seasonal surge in demand during summer grilling season. Beef consumption increases historically during this period, pushing prices upward.

Ground beef continues to benefit from consistent consumer demand, particularly in the fast-food sector, Somogyi said. Lean beef wholesale prices have surged higher on declining supplies while ample supplies of fed beef remain available.

Total meat supplies are expected to decline compared to last year with production increases in chicken and pork not fully offsetting reduced beef production, Somogyi said.

Beef production has declined 2% compared to this time last year, he said. That reduction comes after a 5% dip in beef production in 2023 compared to the same time in 2022.

Meanwhile, the U.S. cow herd is the smallest since 1961. Two years of severe drought in Texas, which accounts for more than 14% of beef cattle nationally, factored into the decline. This means fewer cows are going to market, which in turn puts pressure on supplies and ultimately causes upward price trends at grocery stores.

Ground beef prices were expected to increase an average of 6 cents per pound to $5.19 by October compared to $5.16 in May. Prices have come down about 20 cents per pound since they peaked in November, but still remain higher than the pre-pandemic price of $4.50 per pound in April 2019.

Pork chops were expected to follow a similar retail price trend, Somogyi said. They are expected to increase a few cents per pound on average as the pork industry has faced challenges over the past year. These challenges include rising input costs that led to the worst industry-wide losses in 25 years.

Somogyi expects those mounting losses for producers to constrain pork production and supplies, adding to the upward pressure on prices for consumers.

However, he sees a divergent trend with chicken prices, particularly boneless breasts, due to poultry production efficiencies and stable feed costs. Prices for boneless chicken breasts were expected to decline from $4.06 per pound to $3.91 per pound on average.

Somogyi said the poultry industry has more agility to react to market demands, including production costs and supply chain improvements that are favorable for consumers. The sector has also been diligent in battling Avian influenza.

Broiler chickens grown for meat take around six weeks to produce compared to 22-26 weeks for swine and 12-14 months for a cow to reach processing weight.

“I think the key takeaway is from where prices are now and the forecast report is that prices are relatively stable,” he said. “Most categories are at or near historic highs but factors like falling feed prices and lower input costs are helping mitigate future price spikes or rocketing prices like we’ve witnessed for some meat categories in the past few years.”

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

SOUTHEAST

Rainfall ranged from a small amount to over 19 inches with flooding observed in many creeks, rivers and bayous. Soil moisture levels ranged from adequate to surplus. Pastures were oversaturated in some areas. Grain sorghum fields were not looking good after too much rain, and rice planting came to a halt. Farmers were not water seeding rice due to risks of loss to birds. Pastures looked decent but the weather was not cooperating for some farmers to spray for weeds. Some pastures were showing grass death from standing water. Cotton planting was wrapping up in some areas, but major rain events delayed final planting and slowed emergence. Rangeland pastures varied from very poor to excellent. Some livestock displacement or relocation occurred due to excessive flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas.

SOUTH PLAINS

The district received rainfall that ranged from trace amounts to half an inch. Wheat grain was in the soft dough stage and early applied spring pre-emerge was starting to break loose in irrigated ground. Some wheat was being baled or chopped for silage. Alfalfa was starting to grow and fill in. Producers were battling resistant kochia and other missing weeds from preplant burndown. In most areas, producers were also doing maintenance on irrigation systems, including pumps, pivots and drip systems. Corn was being planted behind the wheat coming out.

SOUTHWEST

Rainfall ranged from very light rain to 1 inch and conditions have been very warm to hot with some areas being close to 100 degrees. Skies were overcast with humidity ranging from 80%-90%. The northern end of Blanco County reported baseball-sized hail and hail damage was seen in fruit trees. Warming conditions did not have any impact on crop or livestock performance. A heavy caterpillar presence remained around trees, but no significant damage was reported. Corn was beginning to tassel. Wheat and oat harvest should start soon, and sorghum looked good. The continued dry conditions helped hay harvest continue. Range and pasture conditions improved and there was additional growth of beneficial brush. The forages were enjoying the extra moisture, but overcast skies deprived them of adequate sunlight. Spring shearing was nearly complete. Stock tanks were also filling up due to the rain. Livestock were under supplementation but were mostly in fair condition.

SOUTH

The district experienced temperatures ranging from the 70s to the 100s with some areas going as high as 102 degrees. Rainfall ranged from no rain to up to 2.5 inches. Peanut planting began. Watermelon harvest began, and sunflowers were maturing. Corn was in the middle of silking, but each day of drought was eroding yield potential in the corn and grain sorghum crop. The cotton crop was thriving the past few weeks but will need rain to set squares. Hay producers were baling coastal and grass fields and were hoping for a rain to finish out their hay grazer fields. A few areas were reporting sugarcane aphids on grain sorghum, and corn leaf hoppers were reported in others. There was little insect pressure reported in cotton crops. Pasture and rangeland conditions were good in some areas while others continued to decline with cattle having to search for good quality grazing. Wildlife and cattle still needed supplemental feeding as pastures and ranges were slowly improving. Cattle market numbers were beginning to increase as grazing decreased. Calf prices remained somewhat steady while bull and cow prices have fallen.